A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid. This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies - along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions. This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales. Global dynamics: * Presents in depth models of global dynamics. * Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid. * Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development. * Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development. * Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts. This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.
Notes on Contributors xiii Acknowledgements xvii Part I GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND THE TOOLS OF COMPLEXITY SCIENCE 1 Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science 3 Alan Wilson Reference 7 Part II TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2 The Global Trade System and Its Evolution 11 Simone Caschili and Francesca Medda 2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports' System 11 2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network 12 2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective 15 2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective 20 References 21 Appendix 23 A.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics 23 A.1.1 Four Properties 24 A.1.2 Three Mechanisms 25 3 An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade 26 Simone Caschili, Francesca Medda, and Alan Wilson 3.1 Introduction 26 3.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration 27 3.3 Model Layers 30 3.3.1 Economic Layer 30 3.3.2 Social and Cultural Layer (Socio-cultural) 33 3.3.3 Physical Layer 34 3.4 The Workings of the Model 34 3.5 Model Calibration 35 3.6 Result 1: Steady State 39 3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM 42 3.8 Discussion and Conclusions 48 References 48 4 A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input-Output Models 51 Robert G. Levy, Thomas P. Oléron Evans, and Alan Wilson 4.1 Introduction 51 4.2 Existing Global Economic Models 52 4.3 Description of the Model 53 4.3.1 Outline 53 4.3.2 Introduction to Input-Output Tables 53 4.3.3 A Single Country Model 55 4.3.4 An International Trade Model 57 4.3.5 Setting Model Coefficients from Data 58 4.4 Solving the Model 58 4.4.1 The Leontief Equation 58 4.4.2 The Drawbacks of Mathematical Elegance 59 4.4.3 Algorithm for an Iterative Solution 59 4.5 Analysis 61 4.5.1 Introduction 61 4.5.2 Simple Modelling Approaches 61 4.5.3 A Unified Network Approach 64 4.5.4 Comparison with a Multi-region Input-Output Model 67 4.6 Conclusions 67 Acknowledgements 69 References 69 Appendix 71 A.1 Modelling the 'Rest of the World' 71 A.2 Services Trade Data 71 A.2.1 Importing Own Exports 72 A.2.2 The Rest of the World for Sectors 72 Part III MIGRATION 5 Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres 75 Adam Dennett and Pablo Mateos 5.1 Introduction 75 5.2 Policy and Migration Research 76 5.2.1 Key Policy Issues in Contemporary Migration Research 76 5.2.2 Linking Policy Issues to Modelling Challenges 81 5.2.3 Policy-related Research Questions for Modellers 82 5.2.4 Other International Migration Modelling Research 83 5.3 Conclusion 84 References 84 Appendix 87 A.1 United Kingdom 87 A.2 Rest of Europe 90 A.3 Rest of the World 94 6 Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe 97 Adam Dennett and Alan Wilson 6.1 Introduction 97 6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge 98 6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology 100 6.3.1 Model (i) 104 6.3.2 Model (ii) 105 6.3.3 Model (iii) 105 6.3.4 Model (iv) 108 6.3.5 Model (v) 109 6.3.6 Model (vi) 110 6.4 Model Parameter Calibration 110 6.5 Model Experiments 113 6.6 Results 118 6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe 121 References 123 7 Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows - An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data 125 Adam Dennett 7.1 Introduction 125 7.2 Methodology 129 7.2.1 Introduction 129 7.2.2 Calculating Migration Probabilities 129 7.2.3 Calculating Total Migrants in the Global System 130 7.2.4 Generating a Consistent Time Series of Migration Probabilities 133 7.2.5 Producing Annual Bilateral Estimates 135 7.3 Results and Validation 135 7.3.1 Introduction 135 7.3.2 IMEM comparison 135 7.3.3 UN Flow Data Comparison 136 7.4 Discussion 138 7.5 Conclusions 140 References 140 Part IV SECURITY 8 Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat 145 Peter Baudains and Alan Wilson 8.1 Introduction 145 8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space-Time Patterning of Events 146 8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models 148 8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots 150 8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat 150 8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict 153 8.6.1 Threat in Models for Operational Decision-Making 153 8.6.2 Threat in a Model of Conflict Escalation 154 8.6.3 Threat in Modelling Global Military Expenditure 156 8.6.4 Summary 156 References 157 9 Riots 159 Peter Baudains 9.1 Introduction 159 9.2 The 2011 Riots in London 160 9.2.1 Space-Time Interaction 162 9.2.2 Journey to Crime 164 9.2.3 Characteristics of Rioters 165 9.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion 166 9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice 169 9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots 171 9.6 Discussion 172 References 173 10 Rebellions 175 Peter Baudains, Jyoti Belur, Alex Braithwaite, Elio Marchione and Shane D. Johnson 10.1 Introduction 175 10.2 Data 176 10.3 Hawkes model 177 10.4 Results 181 10.5 Discussion 183 References 185 11 Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy 187 Elio Marchione and Alan Wilson 11.1 The Model 187 11.2 The Test Case 188 11.3 Uses of the Model 189 Reference 191 Appendix 192 A.1 Volume Field of Type k Ship 192 A.2 Volume Field of Naval Units 193 A.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships 193 12 Space-Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq 195 Alex Braithwaite and Shane Johnson 12.1 Introduction 195 12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq 196 12.3 Counterinsurgency Data 200 12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space-Time Distributions 202 12.4.1 Introduction 202 12.4.2 Spatial Distribution 202 12.4.3 Temporal Distribution 203 12.4.4 Space-Time Distribution 203 12.4.5 Univariate Knox Analysis 206 12.4.6 Bivariate Knox Analysis 208 12.5 Concluding Comments 210 References 212 13 International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict 214 Janina Beiser 13.1 Introduction 214 13.2 Global Information Flows 216 13.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict 220 13.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression 225 13.5 Conclusion 226 References 226 Appendix 229 Part V AID AND DEVELOPMENT 14 International Development Aid: A Complex System 233 Belinda Wu 14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems' Perspective 233 14.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions 234 14.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System 235 14.3.1 Introduction 235 14.3.2 Non-linearity 235 14.3.3 Connectedness 237 14.3.4 Self-Adapting and Self-Organising 238 14.3.5 Emergence 238 14.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research 238 14.4.1 Organisations 238 14.4.2 The Range of Issues 239 14.4.3 Research Approaches 240 14.4.4 The Complexity Science Approach 242 14.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid 242 14.5.1 Whether Aid Can Be Effective 242 14.5.2 Complexity in the Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 244 14.5.3 Complexity in Methods/Standards of Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 245 14.5.4 Standardising Aid Effectiveness 246 14.6 Relationships and Interactions 248 14.6.1 Relationships between Donor and Recipient Countries 248 14.6.2 Relationships between Aid and Other Systems 249 14.7 Conclusions 251 References 252 15 Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid 257 Belinda Wu, Sean Hanna and Alan Wilson 15.1 Introduction 257 15.2 Data Collection 258 15.2.1 Introduction 258 15.2.2 Aid Data 258 15.2.3 Trade Data 260 15.2.4 Security Data 261 15.2.5 Migration Data 261 15.2.6 Geographical Data 261 15.2.7 Data Selected 262 15.3 Model Building 263 15.3.1 Modelling Approach 263 15.3.2 Alesina and Dollar Model 263 15.3.3 Our Models 264 15.3.4 Model B: Introducing Donor Interactions and Modification of the Model 267 15.3.5 Findings from Model B 267 15.3.6 Model C: Introducing Interactions with Trade System and Further Modification of the Model 267 15.3.7 Findings from Model C 268 15.4 Discussion and Future Work 268 References 269 16 Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective 271 Robert J. Downes and Steven R. Bishop 16.1 Aid Allocation Networks 271 16.1.1 Introduction 271 16.1.2 Why Networks? 272 16.1.3 Donor Motivation in Aid Allocation 273 16.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model 273 16.2.1 Overview of Approach 273 16.2.2 Basic Set-Up 274 16.2.3 The Network of Nations 275 16.2.4 Preference Functions 275 16.2.5 Specifying the Preference Functions 275 16.2.6 Recipient Selection by Donors 276 16.3 Application of the Model 277 16.3.1 Introduction 277 16.3.2 Scenario 1. No Feedback 277 16.3.3 Scenario 2. Bandwagon Feedback 281 16.3.4 Scenario 3. Aid Effectiveness Feedback 283 16.3.5 Aid Usage Mechanism 284 16.3.6 Application 286 16.3.7 Conclusions 287 16.4 Remarks 287 Acknowledgements 288 References 288 Appendix 290 A.1 Common Functional Definitions 290 Part VI GLOBAL DYNAMICS: AN INTEGRATED MODEL AND POLICY CHALLENGES 17 An Integrated Model 293 Robert G. Levy 17.1 Introduction 293 17.2 Adding Migration 294 17.2.1 Introduction 294 17.2.2 The Familiarity Effect 295 17.2.3 Consumption Similarity 301 17.2.4 Conclusions 304 17.3 Adding Aid 304 17.3.1 Introduction 304 17.3.2 Estimating 'Exportness' 305 17.3.3 Modelling Approach 306 17.3.4 Results 306 17.3.5 Conclusions 314 17.4 Adding Security 316 17.4.1 Introduction 316 17.4.2 Literature Review 316 17.4.3 Measures of Threat and the Global Dynamics Model 317 17.4.4 Trade during Changing Security Conditions 318 17.4.5 An Experiment of Increased Threat in the Global Dynamics Model 318 17.4.6 Conclusions 322 17.5 Concluding Comments 323 References 324 Index 327
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